"It started with Italy. It was the year 1995." With these simple words, author Joseph Chamie, one of the most illustrious demographers of our day and Director of the Population Division at the United Nations penned his work, "The historic upheaval of populations."
The "historic upheaval" that Chamie is referring to, occurred when "the number of youth in a specific population became outnumbered by the elderly." This turnaround in the history of humankind started in the mid-1990's in Italy, before hitting other countries: Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Spain in the five years to follow, with another 23 countries now in the club as of 2015.
To put the dramatic situation into perspective, all it takes is understanding that 50 years ago, the world population was approx. 3.3 billion people. Within this set, the world averaged 7 children under 15 for every person over 65 years of age. Today, we know there are approx. 7.5 billion inhabitants on the planet. But the proportions have been halved: There are 3 children for every pensioner.
In Italy, not only did these averages first reverse themselves, but then, they expanded geometrically: Today, Italy has 0.6 youths for every elder or to put it differently, 3 children for every 5 pensioners.
This grand imbalance will hold vast repercussions across societies, starting with a "collision of demographics" that will most likely first be witnessed in Italy.
Read More at Luiss Open [Italian]